Planners do not use a forecast to know the future, but to decide today with an acceptable risk. A single number hides exactly the most useful information: how likely it is that demand will turn out very differently.
Two items, same forecast
Two SKUs can have the same expected demand but very different uncertainty. The first is stable and can be managed with modest stock; the second is volatile and needs more protection or more frequent monitoring. Without a forecast interval, both look identical.
From interval to inventory
Making uncertainty explicit lets you connect, consistently:
- expected demand and its variability;
- replenishment lead time;
- target service level;
- safety stock and reorder point.
The result is a more deliberate balance between stock-out risk and tied-up capital.
The planner's role
The system proposes; the planner decides. A good interface shows forecast, reliability and the operational proposal, and ranks cases by relevance — so attention goes to the items where a wrong choice costs the most.
